The Crypto Weekly – August 2022 Issue – Over the past few weeks, bitcoin has been able to recover. Just two days ago, the price of bitcoin recovered the USD 25,000 level for the first time since June 13. Bitcoin – Recovery hits first price target.
Since our analysis on July 13th (summer relief rally?), bitcoin has recovered significantly, as expected. At its peak, the price of bitcoin rose nearly 33% over the past four weeks, reaching its highest level since crashing in mid-June at a price of around $25,212. Ethereum performed even stronger, gaining nearly 102% over the same period.
The Crypto Weekly – August 2022 Issue
However, for the past two weeks, bitcoin has moved between USD 22,500 and USD 24,500. At the same time, the stock market as well as most commodity prices have recovered well in recent weeks. Therefore, financial markets generally experienced the expected summer growth.
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Since sentiment reached extreme panic in mid-June due to the monthly and severe correction in financial markets, the perception among participants has already increased during the recent recovery. In itself, this is a classic pattern in an established bear market. Whether and how the bears will return probably won’t become clear until mid-September.
In the established downtrend channel, from the peak of USD 69,000 in November 2021, bitcoin has recovered well recently. From a low of around USD 17,600, bitcoin is now trading almost 37% higher. This recovery triggered a buy signal from the weekly stochastic oscillator. The recovery wave also crossed the middle trendline in the downtrend channel. Therefore, the possibility of continued recovery to USD 29,000 to USD 30,000 is quite good.
In general, the weekly chart gives the first bullish signal. It is still too early to talk about a lasting trend change and the end of the crypto era. However, continued recovery seems quite likely and is the preferred scenario.
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On the daily chart, bitcoin price reached the first price target of around 25,000 USD. Currently, bitcoin is trading just below the upper Bollinger band ($24,622). Although this resistance has been attacked in recent weeks, it has not (yet) left room for a daily rise. While the stochastic oscillator is trying to hide an active buy signal, the distance to the 200-day descending line ($32,855) is still important. A rally to this moving average should be successful in the coming weeks or months.
However, a flat uptrend could still be a bearish flag formation, similar to the beginning of May. But even so, it seems a greater probability, at least in the short term. So a sustained rise above USD 25,000 could force a bit and lead to a quick rise to USD 29,000 to USD 30,000.
In summary, the daily chart is bullish. The recovery still has room to climb. The next recovery target is the $30,000 level and the 200-day moving average line. Just below 22,000 USD, the image will drop significantly.
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The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recovered significantly over the past four weeks. However, it still measures a slightly eerie feeling. After the brutal sell-off that lasted seven months, fear continues to deepen in the crypto sector.
In the bigger picture, the battered feelings also persist. This setup has some great opposing options.
The seasonal component remains somewhat unfavorable until late September or early October. September in particular was a poor month for the stock market. Since bitcoin and the stock market have been highly correlated for months, the weak seasonal trend could be reinforced in September. However, according to seasonal patterns, October could see the start of a new uptrend in the crypto sector.
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Due to the November 8th “mid-term elections” in the US, a sharp decline in the financial markets will be very counterproductive to keeping the current administration. Therefore, only a slow pullback in the financial markets during the month of September will be more conceivable. Ultimately, the market may recover until the US election.
In general, the seasonal component still requires patience. According to statistics, the situation is not clear until mid-October. However, in the short term, a continuation of the summer rally is still possible.
The bitcoin/gold ratio recovered from 9.59 to the current level of 13.5. At the current price of about 24,000 USD for a bitcoin and about 1,775 for a troy ounce of gold, you have to pay 13.5 ounces of gold for a bitcoin. Put another way, one troy ounce of gold is currently worth about 0.074 bitcoins.
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Overall, the recovery for bitcoin against gold has occurred over the past four weeks. The stated recovery target of around 15 to 16 has not yet been reached, but is now on the horizon. As a result of the rally, the stochastic on the weekly chart triggered a new buy signal. If the ratio can go above the current resistance around 14, a continuation of the recovery to around 16.50-17.50 will be considered. In this area, the relationship again faced strong resistance.
In general, buying and selling Bitcoin against gold only makes sense if you balance the allocation in the two asset classes! At least 10% to a maximum of 25% of total assets should be invested in physical precious metals, while in crypto and especially in bitcoin it should be at least 1% but maximum. 5% If you are very familiar with cryptocurrencies and bitcoins, you can definitely allocate a higher percentage for bitcoins on an individual basis. For the average investor, who invests mostly in stocks and real estate, a maximum of 5% in bitcoin which is still speculative and highly volatile is a good guideline!
“In general, you want gold and bitcoin because opposites complement each other. In our dualistic world of Yin and Yang, body and mind, up and down, hot and cold, we are bound by the attraction of needing opposites. In this you understand that gold and bitcoin are a power couple. With the physical scarcity of gold and the digital scarcity of bitcoin you have a complementary unit of hard assets that will be a true safe haven in the 21st century. You want them to both!” – Florian Grummes
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In summary, the bitcoin/gold ratio still has a good chance to continue its recovery, favoring bitcoin towards around 16.50-17.50 in the coming weeks.
After months of pressure on the stock and crypto markets since November 2021, a substantial recovery has already taken place in just four weeks. In the process, the global stock market gained more than $420 billion in market value and the high-tech Nasdaq Composite rose more than 20% from its June 16 low. By definition, this means the bear market is over!
However, this recent recovery has led to a change in sentiment and most market participants are now once again more optimistic about the future. Thus, the Fear & Greed model changed very quickly from maximum fear to extreme greed and “Dumb Dumb” dares to re-enter the market. This is the point where bear market rallies usually turn!
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However, given the ongoing recovery boom, clarity may not come until September as to whether the market’s bearish wave during the month is simply a correction, or whether the market is actually in a major cyclical bear market.
In any case, the significant reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet only began to gain momentum in September. From the current level of about $10 to $30 billion per month, nearly half a trillion dollars per month will then be wiped out. On the other hand, the Nov. 8 midterm elections could provide too much fiscal stimulus on all fronts to prevent a landslide victory for Republicans.
The balance sheet of the central banks is also shrinking in the eurozone. A week ago, the ECB announced its fifth reduction in six weeks. Overall, total assets fell by another €18.5 billion to €8.746 billion, and are now just under €90 billion below their all-time high.
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At the same time, there are growing signs that inflation may be peaking. For example, overall US consumer prices rose 8.5% year over year in July but were unchanged month over month. This is clearly a basket that has been decorated and stabilized at high levels mainly due to weaker oil prices. However, the stock market took bullish numbers.
Overall, we should continue to assume that the current recovery is just a market rally. However, fiscal stimulus in the US is at least possible
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