Ethereum : Les Whales Se Ruent Sur Eth, Est-ce L’heure De La Capitulation ? – Now, let’s continue our cryptocurrency market analysis routine. The goal is simple: to understand the current structure of the market and, if possible, to determine some scenarios so as not to be surprised in the coming weeks. Does Ethereum have a strong influence on the market? Currently, altcoins are managing to extend the rebound that started in recent days. Is it ongoing? Let’s go straight to our charts.
Since last week, the market has been able to break through the $963 billion resistance, where it has been for several weeks. By taking the Fibonacci of the oscillation that we have within the range, we were able to determine the first target which is 1.618 for the Fibonacci. However, it has been achieved. So what’s next?
Ethereum : Les Whales Se Ruent Sur Eth, Est-ce L’heure De La Capitulation ?
To maintain the generally strong trend, the market should not go below 963 billion from now. Otherwise, it looks like a false bullish breakout and a re-consolidation of the range. Soon, the market should return to $1071 billion to continue the uptrend. This will allow us to get back below support in summer 2021, which will act as resistance in the market.
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If we remove the weight of Bitcoin and Ethereum from the market price, the composition is different. Currently, on a daily scale, altcoins are in a slow swing pattern with a high of $690 billion and a low of $320 billion. But within this bearish swing we have an internal bullish structure. Breaking the $393 billion high, altcoins registered a new high of $410 billion as well as a new low of $379 billion.
As the internal structure is strong, the possibility of upward continuity is high. Thus, by breaking the current high, altcoins can escape from the previous support that transformed. This will allow the market to continue its strong pullback from the swing pattern, which I remind you is bearish. However, with a breakout of $379 billion, the domestic structure will be sluggish.
Since last week, Bitcoin has evolved in the same dynamic. It confirms the following trend, where it is the bottom and the top part, which is lower than the previous one. This is the basis of a downward trend. As Bitcoin loses momentum, altcoins are taking advantage of it to take some capital out of the market. Currently, there should be a bearish bias to avoid a trend reversal. So if Bitcoin’s dominance breaks from the current lows, we could see a continuation of the downtrend. In this case, we can first target the return of Bitcoin dominance at 41.32%. After returning to this level, it remains to be seen whether the price will decrease or increase.
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To expect a return to Bitcoin’s rising dominance, the price would have to break out of the 43.56% high to change the structure. On the other hand, it will make it possible to recover the pivot zone, which has served as support and resistance for several months. However, most of the movement is yet to be played. To expect a strong recovery of Bitcoin over a larger time scale, it needs to escape from the previous peak of 44.46%. This level now acts as resistance.
As with altcoins, Ethereum’s swing pattern is bearish against Bitcoin. But for several days, the main asset of decentralized finance regained its color and was removed from some technical level. As the daily pattern is currently strong, Ethereum has retreated for a while, allowing altcoins to take advantage of this rebound. This simultaneously undermined Bitcoin’s dominance.
Ethereum is currently at a technical level where the price has reacted since August 2021. Can it overcome it? If this happens, it will reach a new high which will boost the daily trend. But this recovery, how far can it go? Theoretically, since Ethereum is in a bearish swing pattern against Bitcoin, it should stop swinging higher (red zone) between 0.075 and 0.076 Bitcoin. However, it may come down to a bearish breakout in the internal structure. For this scenario to happen, the previous low must be broken.
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Regarding Shitcoin, I must admit that it is always difficult to take the temperature of this market considering the many exotic cryptocurrencies that can be found. For now, it should be understood that the weekly swing structure is also a bearish as well as an internal structure. As for the daily swing pattern, it is also bearish. Therefore, the daily internal structure is only strengthened. Currently, the price of the Shitcoin index is at the upper limit of the swing structure. This is an important moment when we consider two scenarios:
The first is a bullish breakout in the swing structure (price closes above $2745). This will allow for a different daily swing pattern. In addition, if the index is able to break out of $2912, it will allow the change in the weekly internal structure to strengthen. Thus, new bullish targets can be considered. However, the most likely scenario is a reversal of the daily internal structure with a breakout below $2418. This allowed the index to complete the daily pullback and move below the daily swing pattern which is at $1676.
Here we are at the end of the crypto spot for this week! In hopes that this will shed some light on some of the gray areas regarding the current state of the cryptocurrency market, watch out for the weekly close tonight as well as the monthly close! Currently, Ethereum continues its strong pullback, taking altcoins because of it. However, the asset is closing in on key technical levels against Bitcoin. Is the trend starting to stop? Also, continue to monitor Bitcoin’s dominance to be prepared for a change in circumstances if necessary. In any case, if you want to read our latest technical analysis of Ethereum against the dollar, don’t hesitate!
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