Bitcoin Doet Een Stapje Terug. 65% Stijging Mogelijk Voor Vechain? – Bitcoin has had several bear markets in the past. Let’s summarize the important ones and see what we can learn from them.
Bitcoin’s price fell from $29 on June 8, 2011 to $2.10 on November 18, 2011, after several months of sideways action:
Bitcoin Doet Een Stapje Terug. 65% Stijging Mogelijk Voor Vechain?
The most painful bear market happened before most of us knew there was such a thing as Bitcoin. More than a decade ago, the price of Bitcoin was close to $30 at the then popular Mt. Gox exchange is following a “hell to hell” model that will lower the price to $2.10 in a few months.
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Bitcoin is down 93%! But consider this: buying Bitcoin, even at an all-time high (ATH) price of $30, is still a bargain from today’s perspective. Who wouldn’t want some bitcoins for $30? Of course, few people at the time expected Bitcoin to be around $50,000 in ten years; Then, after the initial drop, it took more than a year for prices to recover and climb to new highs. Insights into how Bitcoin has truly evolved over the past decade, from geeky experimentation to darknet currency inflation and perhaps the foundation of a future global financial system.
Bitcoin’s price then fell from $1,135 on December 4, 2013 to $175 on January 14, 2015, followed by months of sideways action:
In early 2013/2014, two major things happened: the Silk Road market was shut down (Ross Ulicht is now serving two life sentences without parole), and the Mt. Gox stock crash. These are the two reasons for the subsequent bear market. With the shutdown of two major Bitcoin exchanges and heavy losses from their users, it seems to some that Bitcoin is dead and worthless.
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But those who were around in 2011-2012 have learned their lesson: Bitcoin is coming back – with a vengeance! Developers have built and created some critical technologies in the second bear market: Treasure One, the world’s first hardware wallet, was conceived in early 2014 and the Lightning Network whitepaper was published in January 2016.
When the price finally surpassed the previous ATH in early 2017, it never went below $1,000 again.
One of the most famous “crashes” in Bitcoin’s career saw the price drop from $19,640 on December 16, 2017 to $3,185 on December 15, 2018, again after months of sideways action:
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The recent bear market is sometimes referred to as the “crypto winter” because the winter of 2018/2019 saw a major upheaval and lows near $3,000. A false spring/summer 2019 rally caused this bear market to become very intense and the price reached $12,000, before falling to $4,000 in March 2020 as the COVID-19 scare took hold.
But again, Bitcoin recovered with a vengeance and could not fall below its previous ATH of $20k. Trezor Model T and Shamir Backup, BTCPay Server, many Lightning Network wallets and tools, Jack Darcy’s Spiral, Jack Muller’s Strike and many other tools and services we use today were launched during this period. stupid
According to the traditional definition, a bear market occurs when “prices decline by 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.” Although the first part of this definition is easy to quantify – yes, Bitcoin is very low. The second is very subjective – to the latest height.
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An entire industry has been built over the years on a series of surveys that attempt to determine prevailing sentiment. But the problem with such statistics is that they are based on subjective interpretations of what is happening.
Some analysts try to predict short- and long-term price action by pointing to a correlation between price increases and the block return semi-cycle – a 4-year cycle in which the rate at which Bitcoin shares rise is cut in half. And it looks convincing:
The problem with the half-cycle hypothesis is that we currently only have two complete data points: the periods after the first and second half. We are now in the third period and although the price action this time follows a similar pattern, it is still irrelevant. According to the efficient market hypothesis, predictable and widely known events such as the Bitcoin halving do not affect the price much – there are other invisible factors (like fiat currency being a trusted store of value). The human mind likes to see patterns in noise, and a volatile, bullish chart like Bitcoin is very tempting in this regard.
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I think the long-term Bitcoin price chart tells us something more interesting than the half cycle. Here’s what we see when we look at the same chart from a different perspective:
Instead of two half-cycles, we get six historical ATHs and after breaking it again, the price doesn’t seem to be below the previous ATH. If this holds true in the future, if we enter a bear market now, the price will not fall below $20k and if we break that price level a second time, it will not fall below $69,000. The explanation for this price action may be psychological: those who are still uncertain about Bitcoin usually make the first move when they confirm that Bitcoin is “not dead”, i.e. when it breaks the previous ATH, triggering the old fear of losing something. . (FOMO) This observation is not bulletproof, as the price briefly dipped below the $230 ATH by April 2013 and below the $50,000 mark by 2021. Crucial is piling up as we get closer to the $20,000 level. I don’t wait for those magical moments that never come, which is why I regularly build a bet regardless of price.
Overall, I don’t think anyone sees a bear market emerging. Bitcoin is traded worldwide 24/7 on both centralized exchanges and peer-to-peer. The market is affected by local and global influences such as the decline of the Lebanese pound or restrictions related to COVID-19. The best you can do is pick your favorite rule and follow some basic rules.
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“Hey Joseph, what’s this – just a bunch of historical charts and some rules of thumb that hardly work?” I know but the simple truth is this: nobody has a crystal ball and technical analysis is no better than a coin toss – even if you pay a lot for it.
Sometimes it is better to recognize and prepare for the chaotic nature of the market than to predict. With a few bear markets under my belt, my personal rules for surviving the next crypto winter when it arrives are:
Don’t act New traders often aim to “buy low, sell high”. But somehow they do the opposite because their emotions get in the way. Trading is a very stressful zero sum game and most people lose their money: a recent Business Insider article indicated that 70-97% of day traders lose their money! Experienced traders (learned their lessons the hard way) and trading leads to profits.
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Don’t use leverage. There are two types of leveraged traders: those who experience heartbreaking bankruptcy news and naive people who think they have everything under control. Trading Bitcoin with leverage is an easy way to get into a bad house or bad shelter.
Do not keep your coins in exchanges. During turbulent times, such as a bear market, stock markets can fall. This has happened many times in the past, Mount Gox, Quadriga and Cryptopia being the biggest. “Not your keys, not your coins” always applies.
Try not to choose “thick crypto plans”. Visit Coinmarketcap.com historical data snapshots and see pre-bear rankings. Then you can see how many of these coins are in the top 20 so far. Not much, right? The problem with investing in altcoins is that there are so many of them and more and more projects are created every day with more than formal marketing. Bitcoin is the world’s stateless currency and is being accepted by more and more investors, political leaders and common people around the world. Bitcoin is the solid crypto project with great potential you’ve been looking for!
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Get closer. When it comes to both price charts and fundamentals, it pays to step back and look at things from a different perspective. Bitcoin has been doing its thing for 13 years and no matter how bad it looks, it has always recovered. Bitcoin is vulnerable – volatility, attacks, splits and attempts to ban or regulate it make Bitcoin stronger. But to get the most out of it, you have to have the confidence to fast in good times and bad
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